Is the President more or less popular in Texas this time around?
Since 2010, Obama has relentlessly attacked the Texas economy. Our Attorney General has opposed him the entire way. Obama’s approval ratings are worse now than they were then.
And if Obama is in worse shape in November 2012 than he was in November 2010, what will that mean for all of the down-ballot state races this time?
Who remembers the establishment-driven conventional wisdom in Texas in 2010? It predicted, at the high end, 82 Republicans in the 82nd Legislature house. Ninety-nine were elected.
In the aftermath, conservatives all said, “Man, we could have won more seats if we had realized the wave was going to be this good!”
(Keep in mind, in 2008 Obama had massive national popularity, more money than he will have in 2012, and the GOP ran a candidate Texans didn’t like. Under those conditions Obama was crushed in Texas. Also, in 2008 the GOP was as unpopular as it had ever been. Not so anymore.)
Here we are again, and the conventional wisdom is again helping Democrats.
So, what is being done by the GOP establishment in Texas to win seats from Democrats in November?
Surely the GOP establishment isn’t on defense in an environment like this, acting as if protecting Republicans is the only politically feasible activity available. Surely they learned their lesson in 2010.